El Niño Is Back. What Could It Mean for Agriculture in the 2027 Growing Season?

There is never a year in agriculture when weather doesn’t matter.

But there are years when weather becomes THE story.

As growers begin thinking about the 2027 growing season, El Niño is shaping up to be one of those stories. From corn and soybeans across the Midwest to wheat and canola on the Plains and strawberries and peppers in specialty crop country, the developing weather pattern has the potential to influence how crops are planted, how they grow, what growers spend to protect yield and, ultimately, what those crops are worth.

Like every year, there’s still plenty we don’t know about 2027 weather.

What we do know is that El Niño is here, it is strengthening, and there is a very good chance its influence will carry into next spring.

According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s July ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, El Niño strengthened during June, with sea surface temperatures more than 1°C above average across a large portion of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. NOAA expects the pattern to continue strengthening through the end of 2026 and gives it a 97% chance of persisting through early spring 2027.

That, combined with the effects of global warming, makes El Niño worth watching for #Grow27.

El Niño Changes the Odds

El Niño begins thousands of miles away from a cornfield in Iowa or a strawberry field in California. Warmer-than-normal water in the central and eastern tropical Pacific changes atmospheric circulation, which can alter temperature, rainfall and storm patterns around the world.

According to Miller Magazine, the publication dedicated to world milling and pulses, El Niño could very well change the odds of what the 2027 growing season looks like around the globe. Where crops are grown, when heat or rainfall arrives and which stage of crop development it overlaps all matter.

Much like 2026, and every year for that matter, one region is likely to be under water while others pray for relief from drought conditions. The difference, thanks to El Niño, will be the severity of weather patterns.

And 2027 is predicted to bring plenty of variability.

What Does That Mean for Row Crops?

For U.S. row crops, El Niño is not automatically a bad news scenario.

According to IFA Magazine’s agricultural commodity analysis, North America typically sees wetter conditions in the South and milder winters in northern areas during El Niño, creating a mixed outlook for grains and oilseeds.

Key concerns in the near term will be a milder winter that will affect soil moisture and temperatures that will favor pest overwintering ahead of planting.

For the growing season, Ceres Research’s analysis of El Niño, La Niña and the 2027 growing season, indicates that growers should be prepared for the possibility of higher temperatures during key crop growth stages, faster evaporation, reduced soil moisture and greater irrigation demand.

In other words, average rainfall won’t necessarily mean an average growing season.

Specialty Crops Have Even Less Room for Error

For specialty crop production, weather variability can become expensive in a hurry.

Strawberries, peppers and other fruit and vegetable crops are often high-value crops with significant investments already in the field before harvest begins. Water management, fertility, labor, crop protection and harvest timing all become part of a much tighter equation.

Heat stress during flowering can reduce fruit set. Too much moisture can create conditions favorable for disease. Intense rainfall can damage fruit, interfere with harvest and make field access difficult. Hotter, drier periods can increase irrigation demand at the same time plants are already under stress.

Ceres Research points to another concern: similar to row crop country, specialty producers may see heavier pest and disease pressure in  2027. Warmer temperatures combined with periods of humidity can accelerate fungal disease cycles and extend the activity periods of some insect pests.

For specialty crop growers, that could mean the 2027 growing season requires more scouting, tighter timing and greater flexibility for management solutions.

The margin for waiting until a problem is obvious may be smaller.

Weather in Another Country Can Change the Price Here

Commodity prices are another piece of the El Niño conversation that U.S. growers cannot afford to overlook.

Your field does not have to experience drought for drought to affect what your crop is worth.

El Niño is a global weather event, and U.S. corn, soybeans, wheat and canola trade in global markets. Production problems in Australia, South America or Asia can change export flows, tighten supplies and move prices around the globe.

IFA Magazine notes that previous El Niño events have had significant impacts on agricultural commodities and that some effects tend to lag the peak of the weather event by six to 12 months. The publication points to Australia as one area of concern for wheat production, while Argentina can benefit from wetter conditions that support corn, soybean and wheat production.

A strong U.S. soybean crop combined with favorable production in Argentina could put pressure on soybean prices. Wheat losses elsewhere could support U.S. prices even if American growers harvest a good crop. Global corn disruptions could create opportunity, while widespread favorable production could do the opposite.

Weather risk does not guarantee higher commodity prices.

But it does guarantee another layer of uncertainty.

Make Every Input Count

That uncertainty makes input decisions especially important heading into 2027.

At Performance Nutrition, the philosophy is simple: Make Every Input Count.

In a challenging growing season, that means more than getting the most out of a fertilizer, biological, biostimulant or crop protection application. It means looking at every management decision through the lens of return.

Growers cannot control El Niño. They cannot control whether July turns hot and dry, whether a wet spring narrows the planting window or whether commodity markets rally or retreat before harvest.

They can control how they prepare.

If weather variability increases, efficiency becomes even more important. Nutrients need to be available when the crop can use them. Applications need to be timed around crop needs and environmental conditions. Root development, nutrient uptake and plant resilience matter because losing efficiency is expensive, especially when margins are already tight.

That is where making every input count can become the difference between red ink and black ink at the end of the year.

The most expensive input is not necessarily the one with the highest price tag. It is the one that never delivers a return.

That matters whether you are raising 2,000 acres of corn and soybeans or 20 acres of strawberries and peppers. In both cases, profitability comes down to getting as much value as possible from the resources already going into the crop.

Plan for Variability, Not a Prediction

There will be plenty of El Niño headlines between now and the 2027 growing season. Some will predict drought. Others will predict flooding, record heat or soaring commodity prices.

The better approach is to recognize what El Niño actually tells us.

Risk is elevated.

NOAA expects El Niño to strengthen through the end of 2026 and gives it a high probability of remaining in place into early spring 2027. Research suggests some agricultural and economic impacts can continue after the event itself peaks. And global markets will react not only to what happens in U.S. fields, but to crop conditions around the world.

For row crop, broad acre and specialty crop growers, that makes flexibility valuable.

Watch the weather. Watch the crop. Watch the markets. Most importantly, pay attention to what each acre is telling you before making the next decision.

Nobody knows exactly what the 2027 growing season will bring.

Making every input count gives growers a better chance to be ready for whatever it does.